Sarcouncil Journal of Multidisciplinary

Abstract: This study reviews and synthesizes global evidence on the persistent gap between feasibility-stage financial models and actual economic outcomes in mining projects. Using a PRISMA-guided systematic review of 24 peer-reviewed studies published between 2010 and 2025, the research identifies the magnitude, causes, and methodological limitations underlying these discrepancies. Results show that feasibility projections typically overestimate profitability by 30-40%, underestimate capital and operating costs by 20-60%, and overstate production performance by up to 25%. Key drivers include deterministic modeling approaches, geological uncertainty, optimistic financial assumptions, and weak risk governance. Behavioral factors such as strategic optimism and institutional approval pressure further reinforce bias, while limited post-feasibility audits hinder corrective learning. Emerging probabilistic, machine-learning, and systems-dynamics models demonstrate improved predictive reliability, yet adoption remains slow. Integrating environmental, social, and governance (ESG) variables and probabilistic risk quantification could substantially reduce forecast bias and enhance project accountability. The study concludes that bridging the feasibility-outcome gap requires methodological reform, independent model verification, and industry-wide adoption of adaptive, transparent, and data-driven feasibility frameworks to ensure sustainable and reliable mining investment decisions.